Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

 

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Weekly Commentary

Finally Something To Celebrate

What a thrilling day last Sunday was.

Despite everything the MSM (mainstream
media) had been telling us, the people of
Iraq gave a strong thumbs-up to the
American-sponsored election. In great
numbers they risked their lives to go to
the polls. Then they showed their disdain
for the terrorists by brandishing their
blue fingertips.

The terrorists turned out to be paper
tigers. This was their Super Bowl, the
day they would enforce their will and
keep the election from taking place.
Instead, they made barely a dent.
Freedom has terrorism on the run.

The stock market responded positively
to the news. It gave us our best week
in five months, the first truly good week
of the year.

I had expected an even bigger bounce
from the Iraqi election, and also a
positive response to the State of the
Union address. But I'll take what I got.
Lesson number one from the crash
of 2000: pigs end up on the wrong
end of the cleaver.

One of the best GTI stocks this week
was the widely-held Broadwing (BWNG).
It was up 13%, but we can't get too
excited. It's still down 33% for the year.
Only JDS Uniphase (JDSU) has done
worse. It's down 37%.

2004 started out inexplicably badly.
No amount of good news or prospects
seemed to help. But at last the bears
are in retreat. Now it's time for the bulls
to rule. Also the Patriots.

Returns for Week Ended February 4

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 5.3%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 2.5%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 2.7%

Historical Returns

  GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002  - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  - 5.2% - 4.1%  - 0.7%
Avg for 8+ yrs  9.9%  6.1% 6.2%
Last 52 wks - 14%  1% 5%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 80% - 59% - 21%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
236% 87% 55%