Commentary:  Super Bowl XL

After a hearty feast last week, the market suffered
from indigestion this week. It wasn't pleasant, but
it was nothing compared to the heartburn that
will be caused by all the pizzas we Americans
will consume while watching the Super Bowl on
Sunday. As the Boomer Generation has learned,
"acid reflux" doesn't refer to LSD flashback.

In my family, we joke that the NFL Playoffs are
our High Holy Days. We take pro football that
seriously. After the Super Bowl, we will be
resigned to wandering in the wilderness for
30 weeks, until the next season begins.

The Super Bowl is the quintessential American
holiday. This year's is Super Bowl XL, the 40th
edition of the game. Serendipitously, since so
much of the game is marketing, XL has useful
connotations, such as extra large, or excellent.

That got me to thinking about roman numerals,
a curious way of counting. Could its clumsiness
have caused the fall of the Roman Empire?

Unlikely, but before I go any further, how would
you write the year 1999 in roman numerals?
I assumed I knew, but I discovered it was much
more complicated than I'd thought.

Thanks to this link I learned the system: you take
it a digit at a time, so 1999 equals 1000+900+90+9,
or M+CM+XC+IX.  I like the resulting MCMXCIX
so much that I've put it on the masthead above,
in commemoration of the GTI's first year.

One thing XL does not mean here is Excel, as in
Microsoft Excel, the spreadsheet program. I use
MS Works to produce all the numbers and charts
that go into this site. Works is perhaps Excel for
Dummies, but it "works" for me.

XL definitely does mean excellence. What
amazing creatures pro football players are.
The mind boggles that such physical giants
can be so athletic and smart.

If there's a more mentally and physically
challenging sport than pro football, I don't know
what it is. At the professional level it pits almost
infinitely variable offenses against similarly
complex defenses. There is no end to the
possible permutations. No wonder the coaches
(and the more devoted players) work such long
hours planning strategy and studying game film.

This year's teams appear well matched, but
I expect that Super Bowl XL, being played in
Old Economy Detroit, will be won not by
New Economy Seattle, but by Old Economy
Pittsburgh. I think one must take the Bus.

Is that a bad sign for us Gilder investors, whose
hopes are pinned to the new economy, and for
whom Seattle has special significance as the
home of GG's Discovery Institute? No, because
the conventional wisdom is that whenever the
Super Bowl is won by an NFC team (such as
Seattle) or a team from the old NFL (such as
Pittsburgh), the market has a good year.

So let's just kick back, reach for the Maalox,
and enjoy the game. We're winners either way. 

The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

With its third top-two finish in the last four weeks,
Broadwing (BWNG) now leads the pack, up 64%
for the year. Next come Ikanos Communications
(IKAN) at 44%, and Broadcom (BRCM) at 43%.
At the other end of the spectrum are Intel (INTC),
down 17% for the year, and Microvision (MVIS),
down 13%.

The Week Day by Day:
 

Looking on the bright side, the GTI has beaten
the NASDAQ all five weeks this year. The GTI is
up 14.1% for the year, vs. 2.6% for the NASDAQ.

Returns for the Week:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 1.3%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 1.8%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 1.5%

Historical Returns:

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

There are now 27 companies in the GTI.

Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
7 up, 20 down, 0 unchanged.

From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:

Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:


 

The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.  Click here
for the details of its