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Jan. 28, 2005

Dick Sears: Weekly Commentary
The Winter of Our Discontent

It's bitterly cold on Wall Street. Prices
and temperatures keep falling. There's
no relief in sight.

The GTI finally eked out a gain this week,
but look at these chilling 2005 returns:
BWNG down 41%, JDSU down 31%,
AMD down 29%, MVIS down 26%,
LNOP down 20%, PWER down 18%,
QCOM down 14%. That's a lot of
red ink in only four weeks.

Usually the month of January is a time
when the bears hibernate, and the bulls
run free, but not this year. It must be
global warming.

But wait, it's almost Groundhog Day.
On Wednesday, Staten Island Chuck,
New York City's official weather rodent
will tell us if we're in for an early spring
or six more weeks of winter.

Given the correlation between the
temperature and market prices, this
report should be as closely watched
as one of Alan Greenspan's.

Ever since the movie of the same
name, Groundhog Day has carried
a special connotation of déjà vu,
of the same events repeating
themselves, day after day.

Which is just what this market feels
like. We need something to get us
out of our ursine rut. All I could come
up with was a woodchuck. Anybody
got a better idea?

Returns for Week Ended January 28

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 2.2%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 2.6%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 1.0%
 

Historical Returns

  GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002  - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  - 10.0% - 6.4%  - 3.3%
Avg for 8+ yrs  9.2%  5.8% 5.8%
Last 52 wks - 19% - 1% 4%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 81% - 60% - 23%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
219% 83% 51%

Makeup of the GTI

The GTI companies are those on the list
of "Telecosm Technologies" in the Gilder
Technology Report, except that those
whose stock is not readily available to
individual investors are excluded. If a
company is not traded on the NYSE,
AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

This past week there were 27 companies
in the GTI. Advances vs. declines were:

2 up, 25 down, 0 unchanged.


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