Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

Home

Write to us at: (address is not clickable)

Oct. 24, 2003
Hoodoo Tales: "I was Hoodooed!"
Arizona Speculator Tom Ryan's Harrowing Account

You may not want to read this so be forewarned. In my defense I saved it for after the bell on a Friday. This hoodoo virus was a 24-hour variety. I am better today. Sort of.

On Wednesday an old friend from college 'stopped by' on his way from Atlanta to Redding. when living along the southern route thru the nation (I-10) in a place like Tucson, you tend to get a lot of 'stop bys'. I have known this guy for what seems like forever. I'm not judgmental understand, it's just that some people seem to.....procreate more freely than others. But in his favor he doesn't have a rap sheet, although his resume reads like a book as his average job expectancy is 18 months with a standard deviation of 6 months. In any case, roustabouts typically have good stories to tell.

Now I should have known there was trouble brewing when at dinner, the cork in the bottle of the merlot that I have been saving for a special occasion broke inside the bottle and the lower third of the cork had to be pushed into the bottle rather than retrieved. But a good time seemed to be had by all and the salmon was terrific despite being previously frozen. And to his credit this particular hoodoo shoved off before midnight to go off and camp under the stars somewhere other than my backyard.

But early Thursday morning things began to go awry, at first in subtle ways, like most hoodoo curses. Before breakfast, at the open I put a limit order in one tick below market and what does the market do? Up up and away from my limit. No fill for you. All right time to shower and rally the kids and get some breakfast into them. Waffles all around. Would somebody please put the dog and the cat out. Must turn off the computer. Hmmm, the market has come back down. So I place a market order this time but just as I am doing that my 3-year old son, Andrew, inspired by the previous night's performance by Roger Clemens, decides to throw a baseball at my daughter's head. Kind of like that Boston/New York game from a week before. A wild rumpus ensues. By the time things settle back down, tears are dried, timeout has been administered and kids are eating waffles at the table I check on the market only to find that in the midst of the ruckus I either did not properly click the second confirm button or I forgot to do it or whatever. I am still flat and the market is up up and away from where I wanted my longs for a second time. Now thoroughly disgusted with myself I pack the kids up and off to school. as I am locking the front door behind me .....snap. My damn key breaks off in the damn lock. Too much aikido and tai chi lately I guess. Or is it the hoodoo? Well, add another item to the to-do list. But then at school such a nice autumnal morning and so wonderful to see all of those kids full of joy playing before bell. Now I am feeling better.

Yes much better now. Market will be there tomorrow, kids are doing great, the lock is fixable. But hey wait a minute, why is everyone standing around my truck....oh terrific while dropping off kids another parent decides to back into my truck in the parking lot. No damage done to my truck bumper, a bit of a scratch on the rear hitch. It's all right really, can I please get the hell out of here? Look a$$&*^% you don't need my insurance, you hit a parked car (I don't like his kid either). OK, now I am wound a bit tight, so maybe it's time for a workout at the club. Yes a swim, 1500 meters of head soaking ought to straighten things out. Let's see, the lap pool is closed for cleaning but the main pool has four lanes and two are open so off I go. after about lap 5,6 a big splash in the pool beside me. Hey what's up. You all have to get out'. Get out? yes, there has been an 'accident' in the pool. At 9 AM some kid has pooped in the freakin' pool? Yes we're sorry. It finally dawns on me. My god, I have been hoodoo-ed, this day may be cursed. Nah, screw that superstition stuff, I'm a scientist. To the office. Onward to the office. As it turns out despite my fear and loathing of what could possibly go wrong now, the office is actually quite calm. A few emails, one voicemail. Things are good. A nice cup of tea. Let's do the account payables shall we. We can pay my last South America travel expenses.

Oh yes very good. So off to the bank and Wong's for some takeout at lunchtime. Some nice spicy curry, that will straighten me out. But first the drive-through at the bank. Hmmm, what is taking that teller so long with my deposit. Where did she go? The person in the car in the next lane scowls at me, I scowl at them. Someone has given that poor teller a 'problem'. And it can't be ME. My check is good. What did YOU do? Geeez, where the hell did that teller go? Ah there she is. 'Sorry Mr. Ryan, we have just been robbed and all terminals are now closed. Here is your check back, can you come back later?' OK. I'm thinking to myself now things are getting a little weird. A bank robbery while I'm at the bank in the drive-through. That's a new one. What the hell, on to get my Chinese food. Sorry I'm late, there was a robbery across the street at bank one while I was there. Got a bit detained. Lots of furtive looks. Some mandarin cursing. Where is Mr. Ryan's order for curry chicken. Sorry, we place order for you again. OK that does it. This day really is cursed. The hoodoo has even engulfed my lunch order now. Back to the office to the lunchroom. Now for the crescendo...hey what the h%^*. I ordered curry, this is kung pao with the peanuts. Bullocks! How did the market close. Let's see, my only trade, the paired one, how did it close. What the f*&%. The spread reversed by 1% at days end. This is too much. I misspell Eisenberg. Driving. Traffic jam en route home. Pulling into driveway at last, hey what is the dog doing running loose in the front yard, pizza delivery kid calls, where is 6035? Yankees comeback. Yankees lose?!!! Light bulb burns out when I flip the switch.

I give up. Bed.

Comment from Vic:
I first learned of the existence of hoodoos from my grandfather Martin on one of our trips to Wall Street, as described in The Education of a Speculator. As Martin explained, "Take my word for it, Vic; when you see a hoodoo, don't ask questions and don't hang around to listen. A hoodoo's bad luck is contagious." Garet Garrett elaborates on hoodoos in Where the Money Grows: "All the past he understands, and the why of everything, but for the present and future he is a source of fatal ideas and a borrower of money."