Daily Speculations
 |
The Marathon Runner
Photos © Larry Fletcher
2004
Write to us at:
|
(address is not clickable)3/27/2005
They Had Our Number, by Anson
Fredericks, with comment by Russell Sears
Yesterday, for the eighth straight year, my Yale lacrosse team lost to Cornell. Not only did we lose, but we got blown out again (over the past four years, we have lost by 8, 8, 4, and 9 respectively). These drubbings would be understandable if Cornell was a great Division 1 lacrosse team (like Hopkins, Syracuse, Princeton), but they are on average just one or two wins better than we are every year and we were favored yesterday. Also, during our eight-year losing streak, we have beat teams that usually beat Cornell like Princeton and UMass, but for whatever reason, Cornell just seems to have our number.
In many facets of life, sometimes an opponent just has one's number. For 75 years, the Yankees had the Red Sox's number, England has had France's number throughout history in war, The Road Runner always had Wily Coyote's number. Having one's number is not relevant to teams that are vastly superior to their opponent (i.e., a #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed in the NCAA tournament, but I would not say that #1 seeds have #16 seeds number b/c the #1 seeds should easily win). For the Yankees to win 20-something World Series during the years when the Red Sox won 0 is astounding, though, for their teams could be deemed somewhat equivalent and competitive.
Do some teams/individuals just not match up well with others, or is it psychological as to why some competitors just can not beat a certain opponent? After a while, do some teams assume that they are going to lose before the game, while their opponent is imagining nothing but victory? I don't have a ton of experience with trading, but I am sure that some stocks/bonds/financial instruments just have some people's numbers. For one reason or another, one just can not have success trading a certain kind of security. Hopefully, this counterbalances with a certain security that you have the number of though, and you can not lose with it.
The Grandmaster responds:
I think that 'difficult opponents' do exist, in chess there can be a 'style' element through which one player's strengths can match up well with another's weaknesses. I think that confidence can also play a part.
Perhaps the most insidious element to this is when you start to BELIEVE that a certain opponent is 'difficult' when in fact his wins have been nothing more than coincidence, even in a coin toss heads will come up a few times on the run. The reaction is what is important here, some players will lose confidence and feel doomed whereas others vow revenge and up their game.
Russell Sears adds:
When I access my own running style and a competitors, there are three elements of success. Strength runners do better in head wind and tough cross country courses. They have a tendency to overcome friction time after time. Finesse or smooth runners, or momentum guys, like me, kick-butt with the wind at their back and the new smoother roads or especially net down hill courses. And finally, there is the track guys, explosive runners, guys with a kick. Guys like me, without a kick, need to run the kick out of the kickers. This is very hard to do, to the best kickers. You try to do this by getting him to follow your surges. Two or three surges, usually, is all the explosive guy can handle. The limited number of explosive efforts available to an athlete is also why much strategy goes into what heights to pass and take in a the pole vault and high jump.
The best guys are good at all three, but tend to excel in one. The explosive guys tend to win the mid-distances, but performances can be volatile, plagued with injury. The smooth guy tend to be the marathoner. The strength guy is very consistent and tend to do best in cross country or road races. The smart runner will learn to work on his weaknesses. Do hill work, do down hill sprints and do surges after exhausting workout, to improve strength, momentum and explosiveness respectively.
May I suggest that mentally the trader often has a similar "style" that he excels at, and finds it mentally difficult to run when the course conditions are against him. And rather than spending his time defending his style would do best finding the right mental exercise to expand his abilities. In running, I have never found this to lessen my instinct to pounce when the conditions are favoring my style.
It's like a head fake. It's a bluffing game. They don't know if it is a surge or a break-away attempt.
A kick is only good for a second or two faster. You need to stay in contact with the leader to use it.
If they don't respond to your surge, you are left with the decision of expanding the lead and keeping the gap alone or falling back for support. Think of the Tour de France, on a smaller scale.
I tend to surge on the down-hills and attempt a break-away after trailing up hill. There is a tendency to strain too much on the hill and then to relax too much on reaching the crest. In other words the hill is not your competitor, it is the challenge. Keep the two distinct by acknowledging your emotions can work against your goal .
Anson Fredericks is a Yale student. Russell Sears is a star runner and actuary..