Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner

22-Feb-2006
Cultural Fear, by Russell Sears

Cultural fear, I believe is the fear of success. The Olympics are filled with stories of disaster at the last moment, due to the mind's/body's being betrayed by the fear of success. GM Nigel writes elegantly on how he prevents this fear from gripping him in a tournament.

We have had 230 years of America's three grand ideas. Success has spewed like a fountain from these great ideas. Richard Bailey states basically these three ideas bring this fear into many, but I see only a fear of success. The three grand ideas are:

1. Free Trade -- Or stated another way the spoils belong to those that take the risk. Wealth belongs to the business man, the pioneer, the inventor, the speculator not the king or the government. "Give me Liberty or give me Death", shows that there is no peace in a soul without this right.
2. Democracy -- Or the Government is the servant of the people, not the reverse. The government owns nothing that the people don't give it.
3. Freedom of Religion -- Or only the individual is responsible for his own soul.

It has been within the last century that the US fought two World Wars, Korean, Vietnam and Gulf War, and now Afghanistan and Iraq II to strengthen and solidify these grand ideas. We are not afraid to fight for them. Perhaps we prefer fighting for them.

The reason we are afraid of these things is the revolutionary success they have brought. How many businesses, life saving drugs, investors' fortunes are dropped in the last moments as spectacularly as the Olympic skier, Bode Miller straddling the gate or speed skater, Apolo Ono slipping on the last turn?

Perhaps, this is why the Chair prefers the S&P futures over individual stocks. The whole will not give into this fear, making the cane strategy a winner. However, the same cannot, as consistently, be said about the individual company.