Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

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4/11/2004  
Andrew Moe: Easter Egg Hunting

I have two small daughters (2 1/2 and 1/2), so this was an action packed weekend. One of the highlights was our neighborhood Easter egg hunt, held at the local park. A group of about 50 kids ranging in age from toddlers to teens massed at the top of the hill. The Easter Bunny yelled go and a frenzy of whirling arms, legs, baskets and bonnets came tumbling down the hill. Standing at a distance, I was struck by the various strategies used to accumulate eggs. The older kids, faster and wiser, quickly spread out and covered the entire park in an amazingly efficient dispersal pattern. The toddlers, on the other hand, swarmed together with pack mentality. Any area they covered was quickly laid barren, forcing them to swarm to a new area.

A few observations: 1. While the each member of the swarm was successful in gathering eggs, they got far less than those who went it alone. 2. Free thinkers were rewarded. Some chose to look up, instead of down, and found eggs hidden in the trees. 3. The swarm had to keep moving to find new areas of eggs. 4. Those who quickly moved to a new area by themselves could pluck the eggs at their leisure. They were richly rewarded. 5. If the swarm was heading your way, you could either deflect it or move - both strategies were effective. 6. Once the swarm engulfed you, you became part of it's dynamic and suffered an immediate regime change. Eggs in your area vanished fast. 7. Swarms follow a leader, though the individual patterns of the members may appear chaotic. (my 2 1/2 year old bounced around in every direction, but was never more than 10 feet from the Easter Bunny). 8. A charismatic leader can take the swarm in any direction. If so motivated, deception could be used to distract the swarm. 9. Survivability of a single egg was stable and fairly constant until the swarm hit. It then reduced to zero quickly.

For those who count, complexity theory deals with swarms. The Santa Fe Institute has a great deal of information on the topic at http://www.santafe.edu/.

Hoping you're all adding eggs to your basket,
Andrew Moe

Ken Smith adds:
At 6 am I looked out to the front lawn and observed a lone American Robin listening for worms and insects in the dew-moist grassy ground. The bird shuffled from point to point in a random-appearing change of direction. This is breeding season; the birds are now carnivores. After breeding they will switch to a vegetarian diet. The Robin was patient at each stop, giving his senses time to pick up the signals nature has programmed him to use in his search for food, food which furnishes him with reproductive energy. He has arisen early and discovered this niche for himself, my front lawn, recently watered. A signal from the ground is perceived and Sir Robin quickly has his prey, no hesitation. This guy is an active hunter, as in active trader. His little computer brain and sense organs are crawling the field in search of prey, a morsel to fatten his resources. Sir Robin will switch to another lawn or playground or marsh when his present search produces less energy than the energy required to do the search. He will fly away, perhaps randomly choosing the next site for exploration. When breeding season is over, the eggs hatched and nurtured, Sir Robin will change his diet preference. And the turning of the earth, the sun, and the moon will influence him to change his territory, his environment, his location in relation to these planetary orbits. A trader seeks a niche, as the good Doctor Niederhoffer has suggested. Sir Robin, as an epitome of nature's example, has a bird brain yet survives, breeds, and flourishes. How complicated do we need to be to survive as traders? "Once breeding season is over, the sweet-singing and familiar robin of our backyards becomes more furtive and shy. Large nomadic flocks form and range over the countryside in search of berries such as mulberry, sumac, grape, viburnum, and cedar, as they shift from their breeding season diet of insects and earthworms to become wholly vegetarian. By September, many are moving south from the northern parts of the eastern half of the country to winter with southern residents in the Middle Atlantic and Gulf states. In the West, Robins wander broadly in search of food and move generally to areas of lower altitude. But some linger as far north as Canada when food supplies are adequate, so the first robin you see in spring may not have come from too far away." http://birds.cornell.edu/BOW/AMEROB/ 

Ken Smith RERUM NOVARUM

Victor Niederhoffer Adds: There is Beauty in Andrew Moe's Post

(after The Mikado, by Gilbert & Sullivan)

Katisha:
There is beauty in the bellow of the blast
There is grandeur in the growling of the gale
There is eloquent outpouring
Then the lion is a-roaring
And the tiger is a-lashing of his tail!

Koko:
Yes, I'd
like to see a tiger From the Congo or the Niger
And especially when lashing of his tail!

Katisha:
Volcanoes have a splendor that is grim
And earthquakes only terrify the dolts
But to him who's scientific
There nothing that's terrific
in the falling of a flight of thunderbolts!

Inspired by the exhilarating experience of reading Mr. Moe's post on Easter Eggs and Markets. A classic. -- Vic