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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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12/07/04
Adventures in Retailing Part II: Two Guys in Retail
Land, by Ross Miller
My mega-store memories of youth are of the Two Guys from
Harrison (later known as Two Guys ) in Union, New Jersey
just off infamous Route 22 and down from its even more
infamous Flagship--the ship-shaped building that has hosted
several different establishments over the years. Two Guys
never ventured far from its roots in Harrison, a burg best
known to commuters for its woebegone PATH station, but it
foreshadowed the future of retailing.
The Union Two Guys store was huge and filled with discount
merchandise and much of which said Made in Japan when that
was still a pejorative term. Many of my cherished toys and
my first transistor radio came from that store. When my
parents went shopping there, they would leave me in the play
area with a handful of nickels and I would immerse myself in
the various pinball machines and other forms of electric
entertainment until they gathered me back up. Two Guys had
everything school supplies, clothing, records, electronics,
house wares, jewelry, hats, and in its last days, groceries.
Unlike the downtown department stores (Macy s Bamberger s,
etc.), which were where the retailing action was in New
Jersey during the early 1960s, Two Guys was all on a single
sprawling level with seemingly unbounded parking.
Long before it closed its doors, Two Guys went into the
typical retail death spiral. Anything in the store that
broke stayed broken. It looked a lot like my local Kmart
(Martha among the ruins) looks today and the way that my
local Wal-Mart is beginning to look. (Don t expect me to
comment on the Sears/Kmart merger.)
Maybe Two Guys was ahead of its time. Maybe not. Maybe all
retailers have a life cycle that includes death or a related
transformation. As went Two Guys, so went E. J. Korvettes,
Woolworth s, and all the rest.
The two guys that are the real focus of this commentary are
not from Harrison. Wal-Mart is from Bentonville and Target
is from somewhere like the MoMA design store (or maybe just
the Michael Graves section). I have done only a quick
in-and-out at my local Wal-Mart since my notable excursion
this past summer, though I must admit to being a regular
Target customer.
Given enough time, both Wal-Mart and Target will almost
certainly succumb to a combination of market forces and
their own stupidity. I m not one to bet on which will far by
the wayside first (and if I did, I d be tempted to bet
against myself). Target still seems to be working on finding
themselves. The newest store in the area has an embedded
Starbuck s and even the older stores look like new stores
that have not quite figured out what they are doing. But at
least shopping at Target is an inoffensive experience,
though I wish they would ditch that mascot dog of theirs
(maybe Old Navy could use him).
Wal-Mart, on the other hand, knows exactly what they are. In
an attempt to develop a General Theory of Wal-Mart, I have
come up with my two special theories of Wal-Mart. Bear in
mind that my theories apply only to Wal-Mart and not Sam s
Club. Any unified theory of Bentonville retailing must wait
for future generations of economists.
The first special theory I call Miller s First Law of
Wal-Mart. It goes like this:
It only pays to shop at Wal-Mart if you going to purchase
goods worth one-thousandth your personal annual income.
For example, a crack dealer who makes $350,000 a year should
only shop at Wal-Mart if he expects to purchase at least
$350 in goods. This law was derived using certain
assumptions about the psychic cost of being in Wal-Mart and
the opportunity cost of waiting in line. I would provide the
details, but Harvard can probably use a problem like this on
their economic theory general exams. (My favorite generals
problem began Lobster live forever... and I m almost
certain that it was written by an economics professor who
could pass for the humanoid form of the aliens in the movie
Galaxy Quest. )
The second special theory that I came up with is even
simpler and it is not suitable for economics graduate study.
Here it is:
Wal-Mart hates people.
I suspect that Wal-Mart did not always hate people. At some
point, the greeters must have been there to welcome people
rather than grunt and look to see if they were carrying
automatic weapons into the store. In business school
circles, Wal-Mart is famous not for its retailing prowess,
but for its ability to work its computers and bash its
suppliers. In other words, while Target is clearly trying to
enhance my shopping experience in order to keep my business;
Wal-Mart does not seem to care about me, their associates,
or anyone. Worse than that, Wal-Mart is not even willing to
go through the motions. That would cost too much money.
I am well aware that all around cyberspace Wal-Mart is taken
to task for abusing their associates in myriad ways and that
a best-selling book has chronicled this abuse. I am in no
position to judge Wal-Mart as an employer and while there is
no bigger employer in the U.S., I am sure that there are
worse ones. On a personal level, the problem is that
Wal-Mart abuses their customers by making them shop in dirty
stores, wait in unconscionably long lines, and interact with
associates who mostly range from catatonic to rude. (I am
sure that Wal-Mart has some wonderful associates, too. I
have never met them. If you or a close relative works there,
do not bother to send me hate mail.)
The market, however, is in a position to judge Wal-Mart.
Over the past two years while the S&P 500 Index has moved up
over 20%, Wal-Mart stock has gone nowhere. Could it be that
the people that Wal-Mart hates the most are its
shareholders?
Next week will be the last of my regularly scheduled
commentaries for a while, possibly a long while, possibly
forever. But before going sporadic, I will explain my
current thinking about Google, China, and the meaning of
life itself in next week s commentary entitled Going
Sporadic.