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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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9/27/04
Coming Back from a Loss, by Tim Melvin
We saw the end of an era of sorts last night, carried live into our living rooms. Roy Jones Jr, the best fighter of his generation was knocked senseless in the 9th round by Glen Johnson...a decent fighter but surely not a giant killer capable of ending the career of one of the greats. Jones was literally knocked senseless, taking over 4 minutes to get up off the canvas. Jones had held belts in the middleweight, super middle, light heavy and even for a brief period the heavyweight division. Just a year ago there was talk of a fight with Lennox Lewis. Jones had incredible hand speed, was a ferocious finisher and in the regular pound for pound rankings he had headed the list for 10 years. What happened to turn from a lightening fast, hard hitting champion to a fighter who looked almost sluggish last night? Simple...he finally lost a fight. Last May, Antonio Tarver hit Jones with a solid shot and knocked him out. Jones had beaten Tarver in a close fight previously but everyone expected him to come back in typical Jones fashion and dominate the rematch. Instead, he lost a big fight for the first time in his career. Now instead of looking for ways to dominate his opponent he looked for ways to avoid another blow like the tremendous left Tarver knocked him out with in May....the left never came, but a right did and Jones' night and career are likely over.....the fear of loss kept him from being the great fighter he once was...he had out punched and out fought 40+ men, never knowing the crush of a defeat or the pain of thunderous knockout punches he gave his opponents...now he knows the pain and the fear keeps him from fighting the way he knows how. Its almost a cliche in boxing that very few fighters come back from the first knockout loss to regain greatness....Ali did, Joe Louis did it, but they are the only ones who come to mind...Tyson may be a horrible human but he was a GREAT fighter until Buster Douglass showed him the feeling of the canvas....Duran walked out of the ring when Leonard began to beat him, Hagler left the sport for good. It takes something very special to come back and fight to win after realizing how much a knockout loss hurts physically and mentally. The market correlation here is simple...those that play to lose, the fear of a blow up dominating the day are destined to lose....like boxing very few have ever gotten up from a devastating loss instead leaving the field for good, never to be heard from again. It is interesting that several on the list have suffered the knockout and got back up and still play to win.. Their advice and experience is valuable because they are unique. Trading is a difficult way to earn your living....being a winning trader dominated by fear is impossible. If you dwell all day on the possibility of loss, you will find that the market will indeed deliver an overhand right and the left you were scared of never shows up...but you re still on the canvas in the corner waiting for the smelling salts .
9/27/04
A Wild Example of "Coming Back from a Loss", by Clive
I have witnessed the exact same thing in the 'natural' world. Several weeks ago, I landed up with a kitten (to long of a story to tell here). The first time that the kitten saw my chicken, he went after it and the chicken pecked it so hard the kitten cried out in pain. A few days after I got the kitten, I let it go outside. My chicken was in the garden eating the food I had left for her. The kitten slithered through the grass and when it was near enough attempted to pounce. The only thing is, the chicken had seen the kitten all along and just as the kitten was about to claim its prey, the chicken spread her wings and went on a full out attack. The kitten literally ran up a tree for safety. Fast forward several weeks. The chicken is in the garden eating. The kitten hides behind a pot plant and eyes the chicken out. Slowly, so as not to create any disturbance, it slowly makes its way across the garden, slithering through the grass towards the chicken. When it is in attack range it suddenly stands up, pounces to a foot or so away from the chicken and then turns and runs (really fast ) away. I guess it hadn't forgotten the beating it took the last time it tried this move and couldn't finish off the move!! Like the boxer and traders filled with fear, it still makes all the right moves, until of course the one that really counts comes up; then all bets are off.
