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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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Tim Melvin
Baseball and life...I could write a book. Although the new
structure of the game doesn't hold my attention the way it did when I was
a child and there was no free agency or spending caps, baseball has always
had many metaphors for life itself...that's a part of the huge attraction the
game has always held for the American public. For starters, like life itself,
the game has a loose structure...9 innings, 4 score and 10, but no one knows
how long each game will actually take...the game lasts as long as it lasts
and there will be some that go extra innings and some that are rained out
early. It is a team sport but there comes a time, each at bat, when the
individual most perform as an individual and deliver on his own merits and
talents. You may play for the 27 Yankees but if you cant consistently hit a
curve ball you're going back to the minors to try again.
Young phenoms will come and go...there will be a new one every season, every market cycle, every part of the life cycle. They will entrance fans, attract investors, cause marriage ending extra marital affairs, get promoted too fast, but most of them blow out their arm or the opposing pitchers figure them out after a season or so and they sink back to mediocrity. The real long term performers, the Mantles, the Bonds, the Brooks, the Ripkens are rare. You can build a team around a proven performer. To do so around a hot new phenom often spells disaster, a losing team, a bankrupt company, a sour investment, an early divorce.... The best teams, although often expensive, cannot really be bought, It is them teams ala the Yankees and Braves, and even this year's Angels, where the core has played together over time, that seem to win consistently.
Changes are made to fill sudden holes and to improve the team. There is something to be said for knowing how your teammates will act in a situation...which side the shortstop likes the double play ball, where the catcher likes to throw to catch a base stealer, who can break a double play that adds the extra run or two a game needed to win titles year after year...to throw a lot of over priced talent on the field may lead to short term success, but ask the orioles, the Marlins, Indians and long term capital how will it works over the long run. No matter how much you practice or how flawless you play has become, the unexpected will happen. A ball will bounce funny off the corner, the perfect shortstop will bobble an easy grounder, Jeffrey Maier will interfere with your home run, your straight-A student will come blind drunk or wreck the family sedan. Markets will crash unexpectedly. If you are prepared for the 99% of times that its normal play, the 1% won't sink your season.
Slumps happen...to everyone. Mantle had them, Williams had them, DiMaggio...everyone has them. Great pitchers will have horrid games. Prolific hitters will become unable to buy a hit. Perennial gold glovers will suddenly be unable to catch the clap in a red light light district. Great traders will have nasty losing streaks, even Romeo and Juliet would have eventually argued, and Shakespeare will get writer's block. It is the belief in one's self and the world around you that enables one to ride through the depression that comes at such time...to take extra bp, watch films to catch the hidden change in your pitching motion, to review trade runs for the new mistakes, to know inside yourself that you still have what it takes to succeed at the game and at life, to make it through and perform at a high level once again.
Math matters. Earl Weaver was one of the first to keep detailed statistics of what each pitcher was likely to throw in a given situation, which 200 hitter hit 500 against the other teams ace, which reliever fared best against the leagues sluggers. He used that slight edge to become one of the winningest managers in league history. A 200 hitter is worth less than a 300 hitter. The pitchers with low eras year after year are going to earn more than those with higher earned run averages. Knowing the statistical probability of each situation gives and edge over the long season that is a difference between playing baseball or golf in October.
Speaking of Weaver...passion matters. The great ones, the legends that rose above mere superstar status, loved the game and they were fierce competitors who wanted to win. They were willing to dedicate the hours of practice and work to become better every day. They were willing to do what it took to win and when the game was on the line they wanted the ball. Mickey Mantle played with nfo injuries that would have ordinary folks in the hospital, Ripken refused to sit down no matter what, Koufax didn't care how many days since his last game, if the season was on the line he wanted to be on the hill.
Play with passion, study the game, endure, believe in yourself and play hard because no one knows how long the game will last. Thats a good start and baseball as life...might do more on this later but I have to call the bond desk and threaten to throw third base at them if they don't get my offers back to me.....
Justin Klosek
Some things come to mind -
Tim Melvin
I love the parallel about how many different ways exist in both
baseball and trading to score. single double base steals hit and run sac fly
walks home runs you name it the combinations are many and there is a proper
time statistically to play it each way. for example there is a time to hit
and run with a guy on first and then again, there is a time when the proper
play is to take the out and just bunt him over to second.