1/20/2006
Pitching Strategy, by Phil McDonnell

The days of Little League coaching are gone but the memories linger. Early in the season we would discuss all of the different types of pitches - fastballs, curves, knuckleballs, change-ups, split-finger fastballs, sliders, screwballs and all the rest. The question I always posed to the team was which is the easiest pitch to hit? There is one clear answer to this question. The correct answer is a "strike".

Obviously the emphasis is on judgment and knowledge of the strike zone. The point for a batter is that he doesn't have to chase a bad pitch. He can wait for his pitch. The lesson for a trader is clear. Wait for your trade. There is no need to chase bad trades.

As a player I was a pitcher. There is quite a bit of strategy to pitching, and consequently just as much to batting. The pitcher and batter are continually trying to outthink each other. Most pitchers have mastery of about three pitches. Almost every pitcher considers his fastball to be his bread and butter pitch and the pitch which he can control the best. When he needs a strike or needs an accurate location pitch he will probably go to the fastball.

The curve is the most difficult to hit. A major league curve ball can curve at least 17 inches. That is the width of home plate. The ball can literally appear to be headed inside to a batter and wind up outside the strike zone. What most people don't realize is that the curve ball accelerates in its curvature. The spin on the ball induces an acceleration which causes the ball to move at ever increasing velocity in the direction of the curvature. The movement the batter saw in the last hundredth of a second will only increase in the next interval. The usual linear extrapolation of the human brain simply does not work with the curve ball. Thus it is deservedly the most difficult pitch to hit.

From the pitcher's standpoint the curve is also the most difficult to control. To deliver my curve into the LOWER strike zone I had to aim for just behind the batter's ear. To be a good pitcher one must overcome any silly squeamishness about hitting the opponents with 90 mile an hour lethal projectiles.

The change-up is usually relatively easy to control and usually thrown right down the middle of the strike zone. It relies on its slow speed and deceptiveness for its effect. Most batters time the fast ball and key their swing off that. The key to a good change is to throw it just like a fastball but with a grip which reduces its velocity. Like so many things in the market it relies on deception for its efficacy. Otherwise a change-up is just like a slow fastball. It is no better than a batting practice meatball.

Pitch selection depends on the count and the situation. One of the simplest strategies is for the pitcher to start the batter off with fastballs thrown for strikes. The batter has not timed the fast ball yet so the pitcher has the advantage. The goal of the pitcher is to get to two strikes before getting to three balls. At two strikes the pitcher can use his curve ball if he has less than 3 balls. If the pitcher reaches three balls the curve ball is very risky because it is a difficult pitch to control.

Batters know this. In fact good batting coaches will teach that hitters counts are: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1. In each case the pitcher is behind in the count and will undoubtedly rely on his fastball for control. When a pitcher gets to three balls he will probably tend to go to his fastball to get the control and not walk the batter. Good hitters will anticipate the fastball and wait for a pitch in the middle of the strike zone as long as they don't have two strikes. The saying is that the strike zone shrinks on the hitters counts.

Conversely the strike zone expands with two strikes. The batter must now "guard the plate" and not let the pitcher sneak a corner strike by him. There is no longer any opportunity to wait for the juicy pitch right down the middle. Now the batter's goal is simply to make contact, put the ball in play and see what happens. Given the expanded strike zone this is the optimal time for the pitcher to pull out the curve ball. The batter is most likely to chase a pitch which looks like it might be a strike and later winds up outside of the zone.

The batter's position is analogous to the trader who is full extended and is beginning to suffer losses. He enters a stop loss orders to limit his losses. The market is fully aware of this and gratuitously responds with an excursion through his stop and back again. The market has thrown the hapless trader a curve and he is forced to protect his capital "zone" and strikes out.