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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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A Perfect Election-Day Prediction
I had the pleasure of making the perfect prediction yesterday, on three counts. First, it was correct. Second, hardly anybody else saw things that way at the time. Third, due to a technical glitch in posting to the Open SpecList, nobody saw it; therefore, if I had been wrong nobody would ever have known (and I probably wouldn’t be calling it to anyone’s attention now). But here it is:
To: OPEN-SPECLIST 11/ 2 14:27
Subject: the market
i believe, despite all polls to contrary, that bush will win and that kerry will accede with civility. i also think that all polls are now subject to gross bias or manipulation. laurel
(I took out a grammatical error. Today, I would add only that the problems with polls extend to the political betting markets such as Iowa and Tradesports.)
What made me think so? The market had been up six days in a row. And even the biggest trader with all his billions cannot manipulate the U.S. S&P futures market for more than a minute or two.
Read more Daily Spec posts from Laurel Kenner>>>