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James Lackey

10/06/05
Hijacked

The day started out with a "just like 1918" avian flu warning: "It is not a matter of if, just when, could be two months, two years, or 20 years before the virus mutates."

After a few days of downs the market forgot about 1918 and rallied until the war on terror from Prez Bush's speech followed by "inflation is like a virus and can ruin the blood supply of the U.S." which is "just like 1975" from the daily regional Fed switch hitters.

A new barrage of selling a few before 2 p.m. came in to make it four in a row down days. Then at 3 p.m., a vicious decline ensued. I received an e-mail from an old friend lamenting his profits that turned into losses for the day, but he was relieved as he was stopped out some 10 points higher than the current price of 1186. Before I could cry with my reply, a nice rally back to where it all began to 1197 closed the markets down for four straight days.

After the bell, the smell of gunpowder or 18-wheeler brakes and tire smoke came to my senses after I yelled "HIJACKED" -- that is what you yell when a stock is expected to rise and does, only to give it all back in a few minutes into the close. All you can do is shake you head and say, "Truck driver was hijacked by the mob."

Who knew a few days ago "a credible" incredible threat to NYC by terrorists would be announced after the bell? Everyone but me? The Mayor reported "information about a specific but unconfirmed terrorist threat to the city's transit system," and said "the police presence in the subways would be heightened in coming days."

But the mayor said the city was not raising its color-coded threat level from "orange," "I believe people should live their lives as they always do and have faith in the world's greatest police department."

Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly did suggest that riders not bring backpacks, briefcases, baby carriages and luggage if they can do without them. The city has known about the threat for several days, the mayor said, but decided that making it public too soon "could have jeopardized the lives" of some investigators."

Not to mention the life of this speculator. I am happy for New York information from Iraq to thwart any terror threat. However, why tell anyone? So my wife doesn't t take the kids with their backpacks and child strollers on the subway? Wouldn't the police be there the second they heard the threat a "few days ago"? Of course they would, and wouldn't that news leak out to day traders from well-greased speculators only to hit the rumor mill today at 3 p.m. "An imminent news briefing by Mayor Bloomberg about a specific threat to NYC subways and briefcase bombs following today's OEX close."

Of course I think this is not a random news generator. Well maybe it is because that is what I use, google news. Here is the story I read at 7 a.m. today.

 Such after-the-factness by me is as bad as "sell programs hit, housing and the 'energy complex' and a sector, seasonal rotation is selling the S&P 500 and buying the OEX. Yet no one could understand why, when the Fed spoke of inflation, the S&P dropped 12 handles a day, every day this week, while bonds didn't move but a few ticks on inflation contagion.

This reminds me of when I was a 12-year-old kid racing dirt bikes. After I crashed in my first moto, I threw my helmet into the van. My father threatened my existence and any future racing or sitting on my backside. When I protested to him that I was "t-boned and taken out in the first berm" by the same dirty rider, many weeks in a row, Dad said, "Son if you are far enough in the lead, no one can ever take you out."

That thought came to me after the bell. My buddy called me and jokingly said, "You OK, Lack? Were you long today? You know those unemployment reports are always bearish." I wanted to throw my cell phone onto the garage floor and break it into a zillion pieces. Yet out of the corner of my eye I saw a motocross helmet on the handlebars of my old dirt bike. I burst out laughing. My buddy said," I thought you'd laugh at that." Awe man, we were hijacked today. However if I was a much better trader and had a big lead ... or who knew?

I watched the entire "Godfather" series this weekend. Perhaps if Mr. E was here he would have told us 1197 was a critical number. All week, a blizzard of posts would have came back: "Why 1197?" Earlier, when Bush said that many terrorist attempts on American soil have been thwarted, I would have been more careful today after a rise to 1207.

In no way did I see this coming, an imminent threat to NYC today after the close when hours earlier, the president also said, "The U.S. and its partners have stopped at least five more efforts by al-Qaeda to case targets or infiltrate operatives in the United States."

Very funny jokes, huh? Maybe I can be a fiction writer one day. If I don't start trading better, I can assure you, it will be too soon. I protest, got hijacked today. LACK

James Lackey is a Florida trader.