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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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11/01/04
The Melbourne Cup: A Good Bet Down Under, by Craig Mee
The Melbourne cup is a
horse race in Australia, and it literally stops a nation, everybody from the
Office junior to the CEO bets on this race, which occurs the first Tuesday in
November and even on the old Sydney Futures Exchange floor, the quote monitors
would switch over to the horse race at 3.20pm and the whole floor would eagerly
watch the race. I sent an article about sunny days being of statistical
significance when trading quite sometime ago.....I think this could be an ideal
filter for the stats below I researched, and we could possible bring this
figure back to 100%.
...Over the last twenty years the Australian equity market, for the first
Tuesday in November has been up 15 out of 20 years.(75%) Of these the average
gain has been positive thirteen points and the average loss has been negative
7pts.(The greatest loss being down 16pts in 1994).
...In the midst of the Oct crash of 87, even in the aftermath in early Nov, still
locked in a bear raid the index finished higher for that one brief day.
...9 out of the last 10 years have ended positive.
The effect on human emotion and share buying in the midst of one of the
happiest days during the year in Australia, cannot be underestimated.