Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.



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Markets, Oceans, and Currents by James Sogi

Returning from Lobster opening day trip in boat, rounding Keahole Point, the westernmost point of the island, and always pondering market in mind, even when not at screen, noticed:

1. Where the main ocean currents and winds collided at the point, the waves became very choppy with close waves with peaky cross currents. (major currents/winds collide at point sticking out into ocean with mountain separating sides) Like 8/9-13
2. On either side of the point, the waves , wind and current were all aligned nicely, and not choppy, but coherent wave structures. (like 7-1 to 8-6, 8/14-9/1)
3. At point, though all sail flying , barely made any headway as current squeezing around point pushing boat backwards, in chop.( Like P&L 8/9-13.)
4. Outside point entire ocean boiling with bait fish due to upswelling of nutrients. Best place and time to catch fish. ( Fertile time to buy or sell at turning point)
5. Polynesian navigators use such waves and chop to navigate and determine location of distant land masses without use of modern navigational instruments and are able to make lengthy trips with accuracy.

Too rough to dive for lobster, but daughter caught nice 20 lb Ulua (trevally). Filet and cut into 1/2 pound chunks. Wrap in heavy foil with much butter and rock salt, throw on mesquite charcoal grill 12 min. Simple.