Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

 

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9/1/04:
Everyone and his Brother...

Everyone and his brother will be so frightened to be long this Thursday, as last employment was so ruinous. One can almost sense the anxiety, as the market drops 1% in a second on rumors of gas in Washington. The people who made so much from last month's seasonal adjustment by the sharply hoping and opinionated operatives at the Bureau will be hopeful of an additional political lagniappe on the bearish side. Yet truly, the powers that be would seem to be ready to be more vigilant about random seasonally adjusted assumptions of business formation et al this time. Putting it into the Galton box, and without the benefit of knowing what the big boys are hoping for this time relative to the key 1104 level, one notes that on the 19 most similar, on average Thursday close to Friday close was up 1/2 percent with a standard deviation of 2 percent -- Victor Niederhoffer