Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

 

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9/12/04
Dr Brett : Here's a little test .. .

Here's a little test that I found often identifies successful and unsuccessful traders:

Casually ask the trader, "What do you think of this market?"

The successful traders will give you an answer that is appropriate to their time frame of trading. For instance, the scalper will say something about volatility in the morning trade or the presence or absence of particular players in the market.

The unsuccessful traders will give an answer that applies to a time frame different from the one that they are trading. So, for example, a short-term trader might say that the market will stay range-bound until the election; the scalper might talk about the daily trend or economic fundamentals.

I suspect many traders are unsuccessful because they're trying to trade a time frame that is different from the one that they naturally see and follow. If you think like a speculator, you won't be successful scalping; if you think like an investor, it will make speculation difficult. And if you're an investor, responding to the market's tick-by-tick action is the kiss of death.