Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.



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In Praise of Harvey Sellers..

One of the greatest men Iíve ever met, (and I've met many , and indeed the mentorship they have provided is a highlight of my life), was Harvey Sellers proprietor of the Hi-Flier Kite Company in Decatur, Illinois. I will always remember his wholesome goodness, his benevolent nature, his love of people and food, his ingenuity with wood working machines, and his excellence as a business person. He was proprietor of Hi-Flier Kite Company which at that time produced 20 million kites a year, and had increased production and sales 25 years in a row, when I was there. "Harvey, how could you sell 20 million kites in a year, there are only 7 million kids in your market and you only have a 50% share. "Well I have a motto, ... a kite not caught on a tree is like an ice cream cone not eaten ". One was reminded of this today when he took the 12 yr old Kira, to play with a kite she had constructed from the Thames and Kosmos collection( a connection which I happily played a key role in ), there was little wind. but still enough to get the kite caught in a tree and before long we were out there with a dog, a ladder, a pole, and a scissors. It brought to mind a market connection. " A round number not broken is like a kite caught on a tree or an ice cream cone not eaten, or a beautiful woman in a revealing red dress not available ". The Euro is 120.11 down continuously from 123.90 Aug 16, and Gold is 403 .25 down from 412, and indeed Oct oil is 42.98, and soybeans has just flirted up and down at 596 with the round of 6. Of course by chance, these numbers and any numbers get requited. and Mr. Downing has tested my supposition that the round of 100 on the S&P gets crossed with inordinate frequency and has found the theory wanting. Somehow I feel the tests lack granularity. And I stick by my " round numba's never a penumbra" and "consonance must occur " mantras. But I feel mystical. Perhaps I will be able to improve on this terrible state.-- Victor Niederhoffer