The Speculator's
Corner
Proverbs for Traders
By Laurel
Kenner and Victor Niederhoffer
2/10/00 2:31 PM ET
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/comment/thespeculatorscorner/881491.html
The late sportswriter Jimmy Cannon, whose syndicated columns of the
1940s, '50s and '60s are some of the best articles we've read, would run
occasional collections of his ruminations on sports, women, food, cab drivers
and life. These columns appeared under the heading: "Nobody Asked Me, But ..."
and included such observations as:
"If Howard Cosell was a sport, it would be Roller Derby."
"You're in trouble, Jack, when your dearly beloved continues to see an old
beau because she claims, 'He's mixed up.'"
"Hot dogs should be served on hot rolls."
In tribute to Cannon, we're reviving the idea of "Nobody Asked Me, But ..."
today with our observations on the market. We'll be happy if readers derive from
our efforts even a small part of the amusement they would get from reading the
master.
- The funniest moment of the day is when TV reporters talk live from the
floor of the New York Stock Exchange about the action in Nasdaq
stocks like Intel (INTC:Nasdaq),
Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq)
and Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq).
- When preopen news reports call XYZ a "stock to watch," it's too late to
buy or sell.
- All the million-dollar-a-year stock analysts are quitting Wall Street to
become hedge fund traders, and all the hedge fund traders are quitting to
become Internet entrepreneurs.
- Bata Lobagola, the African who wrote in his 1930 memoir that stampeding
elephants often return by the same path, should have a statue built to him in
San Jose, Calif., by tech investors who have figured out how not to get
trampled.
- So many more companies beat earnings estimates by a penny than fall short
by a penny that it makes us wonder why the ones that disappointed weren't able
to massage the numbers.
- The price-earnings ratio, price-book ratio and all other value indicators
have been signaling a decline since Dow 1000.
- If the market is down for a week, there will be a news story on a
90-year-old guru who predicts a 50% decline.
- One week after the market sets a high, news organizations will report that
the percentage of optimism among investment advisers has climbed, while
pessimism increases after a decline.
- Whenever we receive tickets to a sporting event from a broker, we double
our scrutiny of the commissions we pay them.
- Sometimes it seems that the fixed-income announcement numbers get leaked a
day in advance to the stock market but not to the bond market.
- We wish central banks would let us in on big economic numbers a day in
advance, as they do for their counterparts abroad; we'd be sure to erect a
Chinese wall and would never dream of trading on the info.
- If there is bad news for the fixed-income market, it will be announced the
day before the long bond auction.
- Every important Fed official will get a job at or near some
important government debt dealer within three months of announcing his
resignation from the Fed.
Readers are invited to email their favorite market proverbs and
observations to us. The best contribution will be rewarded with a bottle of 1987
vintage wine.
| Speculator's Scorecard
|
|
|
# of Days Up
(YTD) |
# of Days
Down (YTD) |
# of Days in
Latest Streak (winning or losing) |
% Change (YTD)
|
| Dow |
13 |
14 |
Lost 1 |
-6.9 |
| S&P 500
|
12 |
15 |
Lost 1 |
-3.9 |
| Nasdaq
|
17 |
10 |
Lost 1 |
7.2 |
| DAX
|
17 |
12 |
Won 3 |
9.9 |
| Nikkei
|
16 |
11 |
Lost 1 |
4.1 |
| Yen
|
12 |
16 |
Won 1 |
-6.0 |
| Euro
|
14 |
15 |
Lost 1 |
-1.9 |
| Gold
|
16 |
13 |
Won 2 |
8.0 |
| Oil
|
16 |
10 |
Won 1 |
16 |
| Bond |
15 |
12 |
Lost 1 |
2.9 |
| Bund |
14 |
15 |
Lost 2 |
-0.9
| |
Laurel Kenner is a former markets editor at Bloomberg, and a
trader. Former hedge fund manager Victor Niederhoffer is currently a private
investor and author of Education of a Speculator. At time of publication,
neither of them held any positions in the stocks mentioned, although positions
can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this
column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While they cannot
provide investment advice or recommendations, they invite you to comment on this
column at mailto:%20commentarymail@thestreet.com.
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Reserved.