Airplane pilots call it clear-air turbulence. You're flying along
-- everything should be even. For no apparent reason, you hit waves.
That describes last week's action in the financial markets. To
give just one example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
dropped 538 points to its lowest level since Oct. 27, and is now 11%
below its Jan. 14 high.
The week began with clear skies. Everything seemed completely
under control on Monday and Tuesday. The active long-bond futures
were at a two-month high. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 4.8% in two
days. Gold fell below $300 an ounce. The ice was melting, and the
air was balmy. Visibility, as pilots say, was unlimited.
Then, as happens so often in the market, the wolves jumped out of
the bushes. As in nature, when the prey is lulled into a sense of
calmness, the predators are most dangerous, because an attack is
less expected.
When S&P 500 futures reached 1450 on Tuesday, that was
the turning point. On Wednesday, they came close, but couldn't top
the high. By Friday, the market hit turbulence. That afternoon was
as scary for traders' financial lives as the week's hijack of an
Afghan Airlines jet was for passengers.
At the worst part, when the U.S. indices fell to the day's lows,
the Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index,
or VIX, came within a point of 30.
A reading of 30 on the VIX over the past two years has been
perhaps the best tell of all of a substantial market rally. The
index is based on the price of options and reflects expectations for
volatility. The VIX most recently touched 30 on Jan. 5 and Jan. 25,
and that was good for a 5% market rally in the next four days in
each case.
Reviewing the market from the comfort of the armchair, it was a
typical week. The Nasdaq was up a few percent; the S&P 500 was
down a couple percent; the Dow was down substantially; and gold and
bonds were basically unchanged. After the tremendous gains of last
week, it was normal for the market to react.
But amid the balmy breezes, we have some doubts. England, for
one: The FTSE 100 is now down 12% on the year. Complacency is
another: The S&P 500 futures have now opened up seven times in a
row, responding to overseas euphoria as stock indices in Germany and
Hong Kong set all-time highs and the Nikkei topped 20,000 for
the first time since July 1997.
And that miraculous recovery in the market in the final 20
minutes of trading on Friday may have lulled people. S&P 500
futures, which at one point were within a point of the 35-point
limit down, came back 11 points. The Dow average regained about 70
points.
Unlike great pieces of 19th century classical music, the market
doesn't give us heroic endings to give us peace of mind so we can go
home and have a pleasant evening with our beloved. A much more
likely reason is to keep us coming back for more, so our chips will
be in place for a killing blow in the future.
Investors would do well to contemplate the phenomenon of
clear-air turbulence. It started getting a lot of notice a few years
ago as airlines started flying habitually at higher altitudes and
getting into the jet stream, says our friend William Haynes, an
aerospace systems analyst in Rancho Palos Verdes and an Air
Force fighter-jet pilot for 27 years. "They had a couple
instances where people wound up on the ceiling and then down on the
floor."