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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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Songs of Speculation
Lyrics by Laurel Kenner and Victor Niederhoffer
Performed by
The Soprano of Speculation
with piano accompaniment by Laurel Kenner
Spec Lyrics
Jump down to:
(Music by Jules Styne. Original lyrics by Betty Comden and Adelph Green.)
(Spoken:)
I was resting comfortably face down in the gutter
Life was serene, I knew where I was at
“There’s no hope for him,” my brokers all would mutter
I was something dragged in by the cat
Just in time,
Stocks rallied just in time
Before they rose, my funds
Were running low.
I was lost
The losing dice were tossed
My brokers all were cross
Nowhere to go
Bulls in debt
The market looked like it was heading
Down still lower yet
But something changed
Stocks rallied just in time
They rallied just in time
And put me in the black that happy day.
(To the tune of “What Is a Man?” from “Pal Joey,” by Richard Rodgers and Lorenz Hart)
There are so many, so many ways to trade
But baseball is the model that’s for me
It tells the Average Joe
How he can make some dough
Times change far too much to trade without it
1. What’s a good trade?
Should I buy stocks now?
Am I a bull? Am I a bear?
Am I the value or the growth kind?
Am I the old or the tech kind?
What’s a good trade?
Trading's like baseball
Win with a bat, or win with a glove.
Value has lagged since the world began
What should I buy? What should I sell?
What makes a winning trade?
Hello, beans.
Can’t buy you just now.
Loaded up on Spooz.
Hello, bonds.
Have to buy some stocks now.
Good time to go long.<
It’s time … to go… long.
2. Home runs expand
Stocks set to fall then
Next, runs contract -- bull’s horns are sharp
It’s all so easy after the fact
Vol first goes down, Bulls are set to frown
When balls are dead, Time to steal bases
When balls are live, Swing from the heels
Cycles have changed since the world began
Offense at times, Defense at times.
That makes a winning trade.
Things Are Seldom What They Seem
(on the Income Statement)
(To the tune of the Duet of the Captain and Little Buttercup in H.M.S. Pinafore, by W.S. Gilbert and Sir Arthur Sullivan)
1. Things are seldom what they seem
Public’s wrong at the extremes.
Prices climb on Wall Street hype
Big guys sell when time is ripe
Very true, so they do.
Hide the debts in towns offshore
Then go out and borrow more
Option costs they don’t deduct
Public is the goose they pluck
So they do, in full view
REFRAIN
Managed earnings laid on thick
Inventory hides the trick.
Lies obscure the bottom lines,
Ac-cru’-als shroud cash flow declines
So they are never at par
That is how they play the big con
On Wall Street, on Wall Street
Turn around, the profit’s all gone
It is checkmate when they restate.
Gone the billions that they borrowed
We will learn the truth with sorrow
Here today and gone tomorrow
Easy go, now you know.
2. Mergers work accounting gimmicks
Analysts are only sidekicks
Profit forecasts are precut
CEO has time to putt.
Even so, no cash flow.
Worst of all is the write-down
Officers they all leave town
Gild the earnings, steal the till
What is left is sure to kill
Yes, I know: Dow will go.
REFRAIN
A Little List
(To the tune of "As some day it may happen," from The Mikado by Gilbert & Sullivan)
1a. As now is a good time to finally clean up this town
We've got a little list
We've got a little list
Of charlatans and pessimists who should be underground
Who never would be missed
Who never would be missed.
1b. There's the foolish blusterers who never have a losing trade
And all the brokerage analysts who never say "downgrade"
And the pessimistic guru who lost hope in `65
And the floor broker who says your order never did arrive.
Chorus:
We’ve got ‘em on the list, We’ve got ‘em on the list; and
And they'll none of them be missed
And they'll none of them be missed
2a. There's the billionaire complaining taxes really are too low
And the tout who likes to write about his own portfolio
The journalists who publish charts with lots of colored lines
And the bear who's always seeing a new kind of danger sign.
2b. Then the people selling systems that with just a tweak or two
Would clearly beat the hedge fund guys with hardly a snafu
And the worshippers of Buffett who show up in Omaha
To pay homage to the miser whom the media holds in awe
We’ve got ‘em on the list, we’ve got ‘em on the list; and
And they'll none of them be missed
And they'll none of them be missed
3a. And the personal finance writers who take chapters to explain
Everything that's obvious or not much of a strain
The purveyors of newsletters of technical analysis
They’d none of them be missed
They’d none of them be missed
3b. And whosoever will, with sophistry resist
Their well deserved inclusion on this soon forgotten list,
Shall banished be to lower realms where artful sinners dwell.
And join their brethren howling, from the seventh circle of Hell.
But it really doesn’t matter whom you put upon the list
For they’d none of ‘em be missed
They’d none of them be missed
Chorus:
You may put ‘em on the list
You may put’ ‘em on the list
And they’ll none of ‘em be missed
They’ll none of ‘em be missed.
(To the tune of “Blue Moon," by Lorenz Hart and Richard Rodgers)
Once upon a time, when I was deep in trading
I took a big position
Prices went against me
Reserves were quickly fading
I put on some more trades.
That’s when the margin call came.
“Please close your trades right now.”
That might have been the moment
I took my final bow.
You Spooz,
You saw that I was exposed
Without enough in the bank
To meet my margin calls
You Spooz,
You knew just what I could spring for
You heard me saying a prayer for
A trade to give me 10 points more
And then there suddenly appeared before me
A re-verse’ retrace’-ment never before made
With doub’-le in-ver’-ted head and shoul’-ders
And Neptune in retrograde
You Spooz
Now I’m no longer exposed
Without enough in the bank
To meet my margin calls
You Spooz,
You saw that I was exposed
Without enough in the bank
To meet my margin calls
You Spooz,
You knew just what I could spring for
You heard me saying a prayer for
A trade to give me 10 points more
And then there suddenly appeared before me
The finest trade that I have ever known
I called the floor and told them please to hurry
And when I looked the Spooz had turned to gold!
You Spooz
Now I’m no longer exposed
Without enough in reserve
To meet my margin calls
Golf: 10; Stocks: 1
(to the tune of “Dance: Ten; Looks: Three” from A Chorus Line)
Golf: 10; Shares: 1
My stock is still a laggard
People think that I’m a braggart
Too much putting, too much fresh air.
Golf: 10; Shares: 1
The stock keeps falling!
Left the green and
Called my banker for
A guidance to buy…
A company course!
Cut the R&D outlays
Tightened up the pension plan
Sponsored a big tournament
All that goes with it.
A company course!
Cut my handicap to 3.
Suddenly I’m on NBC!
A great golf game goes with great returns,
Everybody says so.
A Taste of Money
(To the tune of “A Taste of Honey”)
A taste of money … trader, put out a line.
I ran some regressions, and then,
I ran the R-squared yet again
A taste of money … trader, put out a line.
I will stay long, yes I will stay long
I’ll stay long in the Nasdaq and Spooz
Then came a move that broke through my stops
And triggered sells almost off the chart
That taste of money … trader, put out a line.
I will go short, yes I will go short
I’ll go short (he’ll go short) in the Nasdaq (for the money) and Spooz
Bidin' My Time
(Music and original lyrics by George and Ira Gershwin)
(Refrain)
I’m bidin’ my time
‘Cause that’s the kind of guy I’m
Jobs report on Friday
That’s my buy day
Now’s not the time.
Jobs day, jobs day
Somethin’s bound to happen
And until then
I’ll just keep on nappin’
and
Bidin’ my time
‘Cause that’s the kind of guy I’m
There’s no regrettin’
When I’m setting’
Biding’ my time.
(Our last column for CNBC Money was published Sept. 4. The site was our home for 3 1/2 years as we pursued what we finally realized was an impossible dream of helping the public escape its traditional role as prey in the ecological system of the market. )
So Long, Farewell, CNBC Money!
To the tune of “So Long, Farewell,” from The Sound of Music, original lyrics by Oscar Hammerstein, music by Richard Rodgers.)
So long, farewell, dear
readers, friends, goodbye
We're sad to go, but
now's the time to fly.
We've tried and failed
in our quixotic quest.
It's time for us to take
our bows and rest.
Goodbye, farewell, we
hear the time clock's chime.
We've given you some
meals for a lifetime.
Jon Markman's edits were
always top-flight.
If any credit's
due, he shares by right.
Goodbye, we fly, pursued
by many bears.
They growl, they claw,
they must defend their lairs.&
Remember, growth will
always win the fray,
In panics, buy; in up
times, stay away.
Thanks for the e-mails;
most of them inspired us
Good riddance to those
who sent us a virus.
So long, farewell, we
hope that you all thrive.
Remember that the key is
to survive.
The cycles change, and
so must you and I.
So long, farewell, dear
readers, friends, goodbye.
Goodbye, goodbye, goodbye, goodbye.
(We also used "So Long, Farewell, for our last column at the worldlyinvestor.com Web site: “Speculators Head for the Hills That Are Alive With Music,” May 18, 2001.)
Speculators Head for the Hills that Are Alive With Music
There’s a sad sort of
whining from Greenspan in his tub
And the Sage of Nebraska, too.
And down at the weekly an
old bearish bird is telling us to sell the new.
But economics tells us,
Regrettably compels us,
To say goodbye to you.
So long, farewell, dear
readers, friends, goodbye.
We’re sad to go, but now’s
the time to fly.
It’s been great fun to
write our thoughts by byte
We hate to go and leave
this worldly site.
So long, farewell, we’ve
missed many big moves,
At times, the bears have
stolen Victor’s shoes.
In pointing out mistakes
you’ve not been shy
And we have eaten lots of
humble pie.
So long, farewell, thanks
for all your insights,
If any credit’s due it’s
yours by rights.
So long, farewell, to all
our Friday guests,
McNabb and Doctor Brett and
all the rest.
Adieu, Greenspan, and
Warren Buffett, too,
We hope they go and fade
away from view.
Doc Niederhoffer would not
miss those two
And Laurel feels that way
about them, too.
Much thanks, headliners,
editors Ed and Ted
You kept us from being
locked by the Fed
Thanks to J. Pink for
giving us a forum
He never flinched and
always had decorum.
Success to our new bosses and McDermott
For laughing at our jokes,
we think they’ve earned it.
So long, farewell, goodbye,
our loyal claque,
We’d like to stay till
5,000 Nasdaq.
So long, farewell, we hear
the time clock chime,
We’ve tried to give some
meals for a lifetime.
Recall that growth will
always win the day.
In panics, canes will
triumph in the fray.
So long, farewell, we hope
that you all thrive.
Remember that the main
thing’s to survive.
The cycles change and so
must you and I.
So long, farewell, good
readers, friends, goodbye.
Goodbye, Goodbye, Goodbye,
Goodbye.
NASDAQ Crash Dance
(To the Tune of “Charleston” by Cecil Mack and Jimmie Johnson)
1. NASDAQ! NASDAQ!
When will you be back?
Tell me sometime soon.
(How ‘bout tomorrow?)
NASDAQ, NASDAQ.
Lord how you can crash now
Every move you do
Makes us feel more blue
You just fell right through
5 – 4 – 3 – 2
Thousand. Where’s the floor?
We’re not buying any more, and the
NASDAQ keeps going down down
Down to the ground
Chorus:
Someday, we’ll see it
Rising and we’ll buy those
Q-Q-Qs, and we’ll be long again.
2. Thank you, Greenspan!
You popped that bubble
No cash, big crash
All our options are worthless now
Thanks to Alan
He popped that bubble
Just like in Japan
Stocks won’t rise again
One big healthy pop
Growth just had to stop
Dot-bomb billionaires
Let those brats try welfare
NASDAQ, NASDAQ
5 – 4 – 3 – 2 Thousand
Chorus:
Some day, we’ll see it
Rising and we’ll buy those
Q-Q-Qs, and we’ll be long again.
3. (All together)
NASDAQ! NASDAQ!
Made in Palo Alto
Chip stocks, software
We say, There’s nothing finer than the
NASDAQ. NASDAQ!
Let’s buy a few contracts
Lots of biotech
We’ll avoid the dreck
Fade the value stocks
Let the NASDAQ rock
Dow Jones, Schmow Jones
Give me that NASDAQ.
Big banks? No thanks
No sir, Give me that NASDAQ
Chorus:
Some day, we’ll see it
Rising and we’ll buy those
Q-Q-Qs, and we’ll be long again.
Now, What’s Your Offer?
(Lyrics by Galt Niederhoffer to the tune of “Anything Goes,” by Cole Porter)
In olden days a glimpse of stocks
were looked on as a great shock
by Vic Niederhoffer
Now, what's your offer?
He used to trade the yen, the mark, the bond
Now he’s on MSN dot-com, writing prose!
Anything goes!
The world has gone mad today
It's gone bad today
Things are down one day
And then they're up one day
It makes speculators
Get their calculators
Just to keep up with things
In olden days a glimpse of stocks
Were looked on as quite a shock
By Vic Niederhoffer
Now, what's the offer?