Daily Speculations

May 2003

Here's a little story for readers who find our Web site and predictions of interest. It has some interesting applications, and is great to tell any audience you are talking to when the participation isn’t as good as it should be.

The house of the chief rabbi of Dantzig caught fire, and the contents of his good cellar suffered. The Jews took counsel what to do for their beloved rabbi. A handsome subscription was first proposed, but overruled; then another idea was mooted, then another, each less costly than the preceding. At last it was agreed that everyone should visit the house on a certain day, bringing a bottle of fine wine. After an appropriate speech of greeting, everyone would descend into the cellar and empty their bottles into a vat prepared for the purpose. The day came, and the chief rabbi listened with delight to the flattering addresses of his guests. When the ceremony concluded, he went to the cellar with his family, all brimful of kindly feelings, to taste the result. He turned the tap, a beautiful fluid ran into his glass; he raised it with gratitude to his lips, and suddenly his countenance fell; he slipped a second time, and confirmed that the fluid was pure water. The fact that each guest had said to himself, "What does it matter whether I put in wine which costs money or water which costs nothing? My own contribution will make no sensible difference to the total result."

Francis Galton told the story at a British Association meeting when a discussion of the visual imagery of numbers flagged for lack of participants. Then he said: “I trust that you who have hitherto abstained through shyness will raise their hands." A multitude of hands went up around the hall, and a lively exchange ensued.