Daily Speculations

The Web Site of  Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, ballyhoo deflation, value creation, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

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Prediction Archives

 

April 14 : Bullish.   4/14/04 08:45 AM   S&P 1122.50

April 13 : Had we been forecasting without the opacity of our wine cellar, it would have been sell stocks and buy bunds.  (8:23 a.m. Tuesday, April 13, 2004, S&P 1149.0, Bunds 114.11)

April 8 : The crystal ball is clouded by a flood of water in our wine cellar as of Thursday's close. (3:50 p.m. Thursday, April 8, 2004, S&P 1136.50)

April 8 : Bearish from the Opening. (8:32 am Thur April 8 2004, S&P 1149)

Instead of the usual berations, we're getting many memos of the following variety lately:

Subject: Vic, Your Daily Speculations
 
Vic, I don't know how you came up with such a remarkable forecast this morning (Thursday). How did you do this? How did you know that we were going down from the open? Do you use a pattern recognition software? a crystal ball? You are just incredible! 
 
Chris

Of course, our answer was that we were merely lucky and that the stopped clock is also right twice a day, as Vic's debacle in October 1997 shows clearly.

April 7 : As the opening was not 1143.00 but 1145.30 kindly disregard the less-bearish prediction below and revert to the ugliness scenario of last Friday at least until a ten-digit -- 1130, for starters. (9:32 am Wednesday, April 7, 2004, circa S&P 1145). 

April 7 : The bearishness in stocks has not occurred as quickly as predicted. An open in the 1143 area might provide the threshold for a bit of a rally today before the always difficult to predict busting of the bullish limb a bit later in the week.. (9:15 am Wednesday, April 7, 2004, circa S&P 1143). 

March 25 : Wednesday's expected crescendo was more like a diminuendo, but ended as is appropriate. Now the crystal ball is a bit more cloudy, but it has a Chinese cookie inside, with a message: "A round numba is never a penumbra." I.e., S&P June future 1100 and Nas 100 June future 1400, here we come. (See Taussig for a good reference on this.) (7:30 a.m., circa June S&P 1096.5, June Nasdaq 1396.)

March 24: A crescendo of bullishness through the close and tomorrow's open. We were wrong twice consecutively, thereby showing at one swoop both our own fallibility and the small core of predictability on which the intrinsic randomness of prices is overlaid. (7:30 a.m., circa June S&P 1089, June Nasdaq 1368.)