Daily Speculations

The Daily Spec: Merrill and the Market

Jim Lorie always used to say when Merrill got to X times book, it and the market was a sell, and at ½ times book, it and the market was a buy. He was a director of that good firm for 25 years and my mentor for many years.

I didn’t alert my mentor to my birthday celebration at a “Chinese" restaurant in NY, because at 82 he's too old to travel for such. But I thought of him and missed him just the same. What incredible wisdom and decency and generosity and elegance and wit he had. In addition to the above he shared one characteristic with the alamatarian Yale Hirsch: He was never bereft of a joke, or loath to tell one. Pat Peterson at his ‘78^th told how often he’d be at a board meeting at Treasury or Salomon and Jim would interrupt the meeting with an urgent phone message “hoooooo de dooooooooo” or some such other joke.

Merrill since 1980 has declined in 8 years., 1981 (20), 1984 (25), 1987 (12), 1990 (25), 1994 (30) , 1998 (15), 2001 (15) and 2001( 20). The gains in SP the next year average a nice 16%. vic

The regression equation is

SPX = 0.856069 - 0.0111919 MER

S = 4.43375 R-Sq = 0.1 % R-Sq(adj) = 0.0 %

Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F P

Regression 1 5.12 5.1232 0.260616 0.610

Error 319 6270.93 19.6581

Total 320 6276.06

The regression equation is

SPX = 2.49190 + 0.0058009 MER

S = 7.99089 R-Sq = 0.0 % R-Sq(adj) = 0.0 %

Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F P

Regression 1 1.45 1.4459 2.26E-02 0.881

Error 103 6577.00 63.8544

Total 104 6578.44

The regression equation is

SPX = 12.2868 - 0.0459636 MER

S = 15.6881 R-Sq = 2.1 % R-Sq(adj) = 0.0 %

Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F P

Regression 1 124.10 124.103 0.504244 0.485

Error 23 5660.70 246.117

Total 24 5784.80

The regression equation is

MER t = 1.82172 + 0.0055581 Mer t-1

S = 11.3034 R-Sq = 0.0 % R-Sq(adj) = 0.0 %

Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F P

Regression 1 1.3 1.264 9.89E-03 0.921

Error 319 40757.4 127.766

Total 320 40758.7

The regression equation is

MER t = 5.15356 + 0.0956945 Mer t-1

S = 20.3506 R-Sq = 0.9 % R-Sq(adj) = 0.0 %

Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F P

Regression 1 393.5 393.489 0.950124 0.332

Error 103 42656.9 414.145

Total 104 43050.4

The regression equation is

MER t = 10.7210 + 0.101802 Mer t-1

S = 31.9815 R-Sq = 1.1 % R-Sq(adj) = 0.0 %

Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F P

Regression 1 534.8 534.77 0.522839 0.473

Error 49 50118.1 1022.82

Total 50 50652.8

The regression equation is

MER t = 31.2561 - 0.241784 Mer t-1

S = 49.0037 R-Sq = 5.9 % R-Sq(adj) = 1.8 %

Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F P

Regression 1 3434.1 3434.09 1.43006 0.244

Error 23 55231.4 2401.37

Total 24 58665.5