In my never-ending quest for knowledge to improve the trading, to climb up from that bottom rung once again, I am not averse to the pilgrimage ... and I took one through the desolate Catskills to the oasis of Cooperstown, N.Y., to visit the hall of fame there. A scholar and I were greeted there by an idiot savant, one who rattled off statistics on home run production, bases on balls, errors and unassisted putouts of each of the 200 inductees in the entrance cathedra. I could not help asking the savant for such facts as the team in second place in the 1950s National Pennant Race as of June 2003. No question could stump him until the scholar asked him to recite the names of 10 highest batting averages in 1962 backwards. (Harry Nelson Pillsbury, the greatest chess player at the turn of the 19th century, could do this with 30 hard words, repeating the feat from memory on the following day while playing 10 simultaneous games of checkers and 10 of chess blindfolded.*
The savant was stumped, and it brought to mind many pleasant memories of savants throughout the ages in music, mathematics, calendar, and scale model construction. Apparently 10% of autistics are idiot savants, and a certain part of the brain apparently is unduly involved in the learning that takes place. (The memories did not cease until reveries flitted into the brain about Clever Hans and how he deceived all the Harvard mathematicians in the 1890's.)
And yes, the natural extension. So many of the
noted analysts in the market over the last 100 years have been of this ilk. People
who have partial formulas based on the second difference between three numbers,
who don't know difference algebra or calculus but give seminars of a
pseudo-mathematical nature based thereupon. Or the groups that believe in the
persistence of trends based on the supposed results of a large commodity trader
in the 1960's who pyramided in the beans on the floor, or the savant from
Columbia who adopted the image of Mr. Sober-Minded, and never buy Dow above 100
or a p/e above 5, while in his spare time, uxoriating countless blonds whether
related to his kids, his friends, or just pickups.
Why are they so appealing, so convincing? And how pleasant to be reminded of them on the leatherstocking trail. --- Vic
*The words recited backward
by Pillsbury: Antiphlogistine, periosteum, takadiastase, plasmon, ambrosia,
Threlkeld, strepococcus, straphylococcus, micrococcus, plasmodium,
Mississippi, Freiheit, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, athletics, no war,
Etchenberg, American, Russian, philosophy, Piet Potgelter's Rost,
Salamagundi, Oomisellecootsi, Bangmanvate, Schlechter's Nek, Manzinyama,
theosophy, catechism, and Madjesoomalops.
Do you have thoughts
on the role of idiot savants in the market? Write gbuch@blooomberg.net.
Art Jensen responds: Interesting examples of savantism, relevant to g theory, as they have a highly developed area of specialization while lacking g [general intelligence or ability, as opposed to specific ability or skill], which is essential for the effective use of any other ability; hence savants make no real contributions to the world, despite their great specialized talent. There are no Beethoven, Michelangelo, or Newton savants. [Arthur R. Jensen, 80, is one of the world’s foremost experts on intelligence, and has written many scholarly works on the subject.]
Savants and WD40: Carting around more than a few peculiarities, well, let's call them "idiosyncracies,” I am still driving, for example, a '90 Honda Accord with 249,000 miles on the odometer. For months, none but the driver's side door handle did not stick in open position when used. Amazingly, over a recent period of days, serial and serious applications of WD40 and other lubricants have now freed all of the errant handles. Functioning has now been restored to normal.
The idiot savant line has always seemed suggestive of other questions about intelligence and trading/money making ability. Not long ago I read an article which claimed that IQ could be measured accurately in infants by measuring timing of dilation response to introduced light. And back in the '50s I dimly recall reading speculation on historic geniuses, who were they and why. The most notable criteria mentioned was the ability of the observed to form associations freely, instantly, and prolifically across unusually wide range of disciplines and experience, to see similarities and parallels others might overlook. It has always been my simple-minded notion that the most mentally fortunate possess a kind of WD40 in all the chambers, enabling quick access to more filing cabinets, and can remember, assemble information, clean and free of time-caused "rust" or other occluding neuron-muck, brain cell ion-buildup with which I at least am sadly familiar, from many stacks (of the library sort) on a moment's notice. Narrow those accessible chambers down to one, idiot-savant; vastly broaden the sweep, genius. And perhaps trading skill or investment skill is not necessarily a departure from this general theory. Perhaps some jack-of-all-trades genius can cross over to any challenge. And perhaps also some not that far from the "idiot-savant" may be blessed with access to certain areas of the work-suitable kind and not others. Brett's work with bio-feedback and even "light cognitive exercise" prior to trading may be a way to sweep the pathways, clear away the dust, and get those pistons moving freely.
Any kind reader with access to ingestible form of this WD40 of the mind, especially one with only mild side effects, feel free to contact me at earliest convenience.
Savants and the Front-End Loader: What I sought on this list was posts like this -- the virtues of WD40. My neighbor borrowed the front-end loader out of my barn the other day. He didn't realize that the loader controller was a little sticky. He raised the loader, turned his head to back out, loader continued north into the roof of the barn. A little WD40 solved the problem. -- Tim Rudderow
The Mathematician Savant Breed: Legend has it that a couple
years before I went to Virginia Tech a Math professor went "postal"
(violently crazy) in the middle of a class, holding the students at bay. A student
escaped and soon the local asylum was summoned.
It made Blackburg's paper, basically the school paper, in this university town.
When his acquaintances were interviewed, all agreed he was a brilliant man. But
his idiosyncrasies made him quite aloof, unapproachable and a bit frightening.
It would have ended there, but soon after being released from the mental
hospital the professor sued the university for a grand sum, for ruining his
reputation and career. This of course escalated the interest into a statewide
media blitz. Sharks, smelling blood, soon appeared to interview whomever would
speak about him at the university. The most memorable quote was from the Math
Departments secretary. Upon being asked if he had shown any unusual behavior
before this incident. She said, "Did you see that sign above the door when
you came in? This is the Math Department. They ALL are crazy here."
Lest you think I have come to bury mathematicians, not to praise them, the
point is that some of the most brilliant, most highly skilled people use that
brilliance as a hiding place, a chamber to escape their tortured minds,
"idiot savants".
Others however, use their sharpened skills to pick the locks on the doors of
the universe. Their brilliance is the tool they use to explore the world.
Some times these doors will open up vast promising territory. Such as the
computer age.
Other times, it will be brave new worlds, such as quantum mechanics and nuclear
power. Yet, others will be dark dungeons in which we learn to avoid, such as
LTCM and Currie's radiation poison.
But for the brilliant mind, the choice is yours...a hiding place or
exploration.
Russell Sears