As usual, our readers have better knowledge than we do of time and place—and in this case, baseball. James Altucher of Subway Capital writes:

Different types of pitches need to be hit differently. For the fastball it’s important not to swing too late. For the slider, which looks like a fastball and then breaks down and to the left its important to not be fooled by the initial movement.

In the markets, a fastball occurs when a stock moves down 20% in a day from the close the day before. Perhaps there was an earnings warning, or a negative FDA announcement or maybe even an SEC investigation. Regardless, the market is throwing a fastball and the key is not to swing too late. We looked over the past year at all Nasdaq 100 stocks and what happened if you bought exactly when a stock was 20% down from the close the day before and then sold at the close. There were 96 occurrences over this past year with an expected value of 1.5% per trade. 60% of the trades had a favorable result.

A slider happens when the market is up greater than 2% one day then gaps up at least a half a percent the next open, luring people into a mini-bull before breaking down and to the left. A short at the open on such a gap with a cover at the close the next day results in an average gain of 0.61% on the QQQs over the past three years.

Daniel V. Grossman, Victor’s sagacious business partner for some 30 years, writes that the stock market has an advantage over baseball:

Call strikes count against you in baseball, while there are no call strikes in stock trading. You can be offered all kinds of interesting stock opportunities one after the other and pass them up for the one you really want to bite on, without having to worry that you'll be out on call strikes.

That’s true for the individual investor. But Trader James Lackey notes that things aren’t so easy for the manager of other people’s money:

Well, you can sit there all game long and wait for the perfect pitch. However, sooner or later the manager of the team or the investor in your fund is gonna say, "What the Hades you doing sitting in cash?”

“Waiting for a good pitch sir. I did not see anything good to hit,” says the hitter.

“Well, Mr. Looking-for-a-Walk, Mr. Biggs just hit the long ball on to Waveland Avenue after the other three, and the leadoff man singled. I can't hit in the pros and I know it; that is why I hired you. However, I can stand up here and at least look alike a hitter and go down swinging. Please send me my funds back. Seeing you are in cash and see nothing good to hit, I have a real estate venture that is already up 10%. Ya can't lose in real estate.”

Mike Buchsbaum also challenged Grossman’s view:

In my view, Daniel Grossman's view of call strikes is inaccurate. There are called strikes in investing. They are when you are caught looking and fooled by the direction and or movement of a stock and you stand pat with your portfolio on your shoulder and fail to acknowledge your mistake. The market acknowledges your mistake by decreasing the wealth count in your portfolio

via marking to the market.