| Per Vic, I tested out this strategy on several futures markets. | ||||||||
| -- Ari Siegel, 06/30/2004 | ||||||||
| Strategy: | Buy on breakout above 89-day hi, cover on breakout below 13-day low | |||||||
| Sell on breakout below 89-day low, cover on breakout above 13-day hi | ||||||||
| Mkt | Time | n | Mu | Stdev | z | % win | max | min |
| S&P | 1/96-5/04 | 34 | (6.2) | 54.1 | (0.7) | 35% | 122 | (96) |
| NASDAQ | 4/96-6/04 | 38 | (21.5) | 244.4 | (0.5) | 45% | 783 | (790) |
| DAX | 1/97-5/04 | 24 | 156.4 | 474.5 | 1.6 | 58% | 1,122 | (615) |
| US treas* | 1/96-5/04 | 35 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 51% | 9 | (3) |
| BUND | 1/97-5/04 | 31 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 48% | 15.64 | (4.55) |
| * US Treasuries measured in 32nds | ||||||||
| SERIAL CORRELATION | ||||||||
| Longs | Shorts | All Trades | ||||||
| S&P | (0.28) | 0.01 | 0.02 | |||||
| NASDAQ | (0.43) | 0.29 | (0.08) | |||||
| DAX | 0.08 | 0.45 | 0.27 | |||||
| US treas | (0.29) | (0.19) | (0.17) | |||||
| BUND | (0.02) | (0.40) | (0.15) | |||||