On a Trip to the London Zoo
(3/18/04)
Of
the Warren Buffet-Jeff Raikes correspondence is a great
exercise in status incongruence theory, and social
deference, reminding one of the monkeys I just saw in the
London Zoo. Raikes compares the business of See's Candies and
Coca-Cola favorably to Microsoft. "In some respects I see
the business characteristics of Coca-Cola or See's Candies as
being very similar to Microsoft. (our flexibility is similar
to) your "pricing decisions ..On See's candies". Our
freshness is similar to Disney continuing to produce new
content or Nebraska furniture mart continuing... " .. our
moat , " i.e. If I owned the most successful daily newspaper
in Buffalo, I would want to leave it to my competitor to own
the Sunday edition". Then the humility, like the monkeys showing
their posterior to the more dominant males. "since
Microsoft is the
business I understand ( i.e. I have a narrow circle of
competence, and I subscribe to your view on investments,
"the transparent indirect sales pitch" well over
90% of my
net worth is tied in Microsoft, ( thanks to BillG I'm well into the
nine digit range ( the deference to the brother of the
dominant :". Yes, and then the flattery, " It was great to
gain an understanding of Graham's approach, and more
importantly your significant advancement of the approach.
... I've done a very poor job of adequately thanking you for
all the great things you've done for me, golf at
Augusta, Seminole, the Buffet
classic, and in particular the opportunity to listen in on
great conversations and learn from you. " go huskers ". The
businesses that Raikes describes are ones I have come into
contact with many times in my merger days. Retail sales of a
declining product are one of worst businesses in the world and
never do fetch more than book. A dominant position in a
sluggish economy like Buffalo will eventually be replaced by
competing sources of satisfactions since consumers have a
wide choice in satisfying their desires . The same applies to the
syrup business of coke with competitors always knocking on
the door, a declining taste for sweets and non-sports
beverages, and alternate formulations guaranteed to lower
one's margins. The thing I like most about buffet is his
frank acknowledgment that he won't invest in anything he doesn't know about, and he can't understand how a fax or
lawnmower works. he comes close to this in his answer "
I
have so few friends that use e mail that I only look for it
once a week or so ( and usually find nothing ), . And yet,
the whole correspondence is so shallow, so obviously
pandering and off base, one wonders when the grand leveler,
the mistress of revenge for excessive sycophancy will strike
at them both. Contrast that with my people who, while I was
away in Europe, bombarded me with cogent analyses of
everything I was doing wrong with my positions and
stewardship. vic