| Subsequent 12 Months Performance as a Function of Fed Model Valuation | ||||||||
| YEAR | 12 MOS FWD.ERN |
S&P | FWD EARN YLD |
10 YR TREAS |
FAIR
VALUE= S&P/10 YR |
IMPLIED
EXPECTED RETURN |
FWD.EARN.YLD minus 10YR |
Subsequent
Year's Performance |
| 1979 | 15.25 | 107.94 | 14.1% | 10.3% | 148 | 36.7% | 3.80% | 25.8% |
| 1980 | 17.44 | 135.76 | 12.8% | 12.4% | 140 | 3.3% | 0.41% | -9.7% |
| 1981 | 18.5 | 122.55 | 15.1% | 14.0% | 132 | 8.0% | 1.11% | 14.8% |
| 1982 | 16.57 | 140.64 | 11.8% | 10.4% | 159 | 13.4% | 1.39% | 17.3% |
| 1983 | 18.66 | 164.93 | 11.3% | 11.8% | 158 | -4.1% | -0.49% | 1.4% |
| 1984 | 20.37 | 167.24 | 12.2% | 11.5% | 177 | 5.8% | 0.67% | 26.3% |
| 1985 | 19.95 | 211.28 | 9.4% | 9.0% | 222 | 5.1% | 0.46% | 14.6% |
| 1986 | 19.97 | 242.17 | 8.2% | 7.2% | 276 | 14.2% | 1.02% | 2.0% |
| 1987 | 23.26 | 247.08 | 9.4% | 8.9% | 263 | 6.3% | 0.55% | 12.4% |
| 1988 | 27.4 | 277.72 | 9.9% | 9.1% | 300 | 8.0% | 0.73% | 27.3% |
| 1989 | 28.92 | 353.40 | 8.2% | 7.9% | 364 | 3.1% | 0.25% | -6.6% |
| 1990 | 27.81 | 330.22 | 8.4% | 8.1% | 345 | 4.4% | 0.35% | 26.3% |
| 1991 | 27.22 | 417.09 | 6.5% | 6.7% | 406 | -2.6% | -0.17% | 4.5% |
| 1992 | 28.77 | 435.71 | 6.6% | 6.7% | 430 | -1.2% | -0.08% | 7.1% |
| 1993 | 31.46 | 466.45 | 6.7% | 5.8% | 543 | 16.4% | 0.95% | -1.5% |
| 1994 | 37.06 | 459.27 | 8.1% | 7.8% | 474 | 3.2% | 0.25% | 34.1% |
| 1995 | 42.68 | 615.93 | 6.9% | 5.6% | 766 | 24.4% | 1.36% | 20.3% |
| 1996 | 45.87 | 740.74 | 6.2% | 6.4% | 715 | -3.5% | -0.23% | 31.0% |
| 1997 | 50.65 | 970.43 | 5.2% | 5.7% | 882 | -9.1% | -0.52% | 26.7% |
| 1998 | 51.2 | 1,229.23 | 4.2% | 4.6% | 1102 | -10.4% | -0.48% | 19.5% |
| 1999 | 57.46 | 1,469.25 | 3.9% | 6.4% | 892 | -39.3% | -2.53% | -10.1% |
| 2000 | 60.81 | 1,320.28 | 4.6% | 5.1% | 1190 | -9.9% | -0.51% | -13.0% |
| 2001 | 52.26 | 1,148.08 | 4.6% | 5.1% | 1035 | -9.9% | -0.50% | -23.4% |
| 2002 | 54.56 | 879.82 | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1430 | 62.5% | 2.39% | 26.4% |
| 2003 | 60.94 | 1,111.92 | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1435 | 29.1% | 1.23% | ? |