18 May 2004

The Editor, New York Times

229 West 43rd St.

New York, NY 10036

To the Editor:

Physicist Ernest Behringer predicts that we’ll run out of oil (Letters, May 18th). He tries to immunize his prediction by asserting that

reliance on the market and statistics is based on faith. But it is

Prof. Behringer who relies blindly on faith in an often-repeated

proposition unsupported by any empirical evidence.

The eminent MIT economist M.A. Adelman, in an article published recently in Regulation magazine, reports that At the end of 1970, non-OPEC countries had about 200 billion remaining in proved reserves. In the next 33 years, those countries produced 460 billion barrels and now have 209 billion remaining. The OPEC countries started with about 412 billion in proved reserves, produced 307 billion, and now have about 819 left.

A growing population that Prof. Behringer mentions as one reason for his prediction not only consumes oil; more importantly, it supplies human creativity that makes finding oil easier.

Sincerely,

Donald J. Boudreaux

Chairman, Department of Economics