TRANSITION MATRIX FOR 4 COMBINATIONS OF BONDS - SP PRICE MOVES
t = THIS MONTH'S CHANGE IN PRICE OF BONDS/SP
4/30/1982 - 6/30/2003 CONTINUOUS FUTURES ADJUSTED FOR BOND COUPON CHANGE.
PART A: 1 MONTH LATER
Bonds Down Stocks Down					Bonds Down Stocks Up
	Bond t+1	Stock t+1				Bond t+1	Stock t+1
Average	+ 0.5	+ 6.6	Points		Average	- 0.1	- 0.6	Points
Stdev	2.6	39.3	Points		Stdev	2.9	33.2	Points
# Obs	52	52			# Obs	66	66
Z	1.4	1.2			Z	-0.4	-0.1
% Obs Up	54%	73%			% Obs Up	47%	55%
Bonds Up Stocks Down					Bonds Up Stocks up
	Bond t+1	Stock t+1				Bond t+1	Stock t+1
Average	+ 1.0	+ 1.7	Points		Average	+ 0.1	+ 5.1	Points
Stdev	2.7	47.1	Points		Stdev	3.0	27.9	Points
# Obs	42	42			# Obs	92	92
Z	2.5	0.2			Z	0.5	1.8
% Obs Up	71%	62%			% Obs Up	49%	63%
PART B: 3 MONTHS LATER
Bonds Dn Stocks Dwn					Bonds Dn Stocks Up
	Bond t+3	SP t+3				Bond t+3	SP t+3
Average	+ 0.4	+ 18.8	Points		Average	- 0.0	+ 2.6	Points
Stdev	5.5	51.6	Points		Stdev	6.2	52.0	Points
# Obs	52	52			# Obs	66	66
Z	0.5	2.6			Z	0.0	0.4
% Obs Up	60%	77%			% Obs Up	48%	59%
Bonds Up Stocks Dn					Bonds Up Stocks Dn
	Bond t+3	SP t+3				Bond t+3	SP t+3
Average	+ 3.1	- 4.7	Points		Average	+ 0.2	+ 16.7	Points
Stdev	4.2	76.5	Points		Stdev	5.4	52.4	Points
# Obs	42	42			# Obs	91	91
Z	4.7	-0.4			Z	0.4	3.0
% Obs Up	76%	64%			% Obs Up	44%	73%