Daily Speculations

Our Predictions

2004

Seemingly random phenomena like the first month of the year predicting the next 11, a hypothesis that doesn't pass the test of recency or consistency of magnitudes and moves, or multiple hypotheses, is still followed by the unwashed. The beginning of the month would be a good time for that meme to filter into the market, despite the perpetual bearishness of certain hedge funds in Greenwich at 3:00 on the last day of the month. One is anticipating the capitulation of shorts imminently, and playing in that vein accordingly until IBM requites its frustrated below-100 state with a break through the round. (11:40 am Fri, Jan 30, S&P 1127)