02-Mar-2006
Stefan Jovanovich comments on Unsatisfactory Days:

Your note reminded me of what Teddy Roosevelt wrote about the man in the arena. They -- both Roosevelt and the man in the arena -- never had a satisfactory day either.

I understand why you, as someone trading every day, find valuation methods suspect. Most of them are. They rely on an unproven and unprovable correlations based on past events. They do not measure the heat of the present moment, (The reason that I am not a fan of Money Ball is that the statistics can tell you how to win the regular season games but they do not measure heart. That is why, under Billy Beane, the Oakland A's have consistently failed in the post season.) But, those of us in the Kindleberger seats are not entirely spectators. Like Clocker Lawton we enjoy studying the morning workouts, and our old-fashioned calculations of value work better than chance. We do have our own capital at risk. We are not playing with some institution's money, but we are not at the plate or on the mound, either. At best, we are in the dugout watching like the bench coach and making the occasional remark about the tendencies of the next hitter or pitcher.

In the end the race remains in the hands of the jockeys just the way the market remains in the hands of the traders. Enjoy day 10,001 as best you can.