Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner

24-May-2006
Desert Hazards, from Steve Ellison

The desert presents difficult survival challenges. Hot, dry weather dehydrates the human body rapidly. Clear visibility and sparse vegetation make distant objects appear much closer than they really are, occasionally luring a wanderer to try to hike to a mountain that is actually 30 miles away, with possibly catastrophic results. Richard Lingenfelter wrote in "Death Valley and the Amargosa: A Land of Illusion":

The first sensations of thirst begin with the loss of a little over a quart of water. By the time you have lost a gallon you begin to feel tired and apathetic. Most of the water lost comes from your blood, and as it thickens, your circulation becomes poor, your heart strains, your muscles fatigue, and your head aches. With further loss of water you become dizzy and begin to stumble; your breathing is labored and your speech is indistinct. By the time you have lost two gallons of water [which you can lose just by sitting in the shade on an average summer day in the valley] your tongue is swollen, you can hardly keep your balance, your muscles spasm, and you are becoming delirious.

Substitute money for water in the above passage, and it begins to resemble what the last several days have felt like for one who had counted out declines from recent highs and reckoned them to be bullish. I had a profit in sight on Tuesday, but, alas, it proved to be a mirage. There is a rally ahead, but how far away is it really, and will I die of dehydration before reaching it?