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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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Golf and Trading
Why a Bad Golfer Makes a Better CEO 2/13/2003
Spec Song on Golf: "Golf 10; Stocks 1" (to the tune of "Dance 10; Looks 3" from A Chorus Line)
(02/11/2004 1:54:21): From J.T. rural philosopher from Virginia who in the Southern tradition pretends to be a lot less savvy than he is, to make it easy for his Northern brethren to overlook his sagacity. I am reminded of my friend and partner Lee "Stonewall" Henkel, who stands as solid as a stone wall defending his clients from financial aggression. He confided to me once that all Southerners of his generation vary the strength of their Southern drawl when dealing with Yankees depending on the stage of negotiations that they are in. At the beginning, the drawl is greatest so that ya'all will think them the stupidest...and so on. "Mama's fixin' to throw a hissy fit unless I bring ya'll down home for some of her grits and hush puppies after this deal's put to behhd."
Since the Master's is around the corner I thought that I would shed some light on how I am becoming speculator via the power of math/counting.
I have several zero handicap golfers in my family most importantly my Father. Two cousins played collegiately and my Mother has a 15 handicap and this kept me from learning the game until I was 20 and she promised not to publicly embarrass me. My father taught me the wonderful game of golf but non-traditional to how others might learn. This method has parallels to how I have been learning for the last 18 months on this list.
So many people learn to play Golf from the Tee to the Green. This has possibly led a lot of people from seriously taking up the game of Golf. The Driver is the club of choice to the masses coming off the tee. This club at most is used 12-14 times a round, but most first learn the game w/ this club in hand (hubris) and w/ horrible results. My father taught me though purposely the opposite.
"The Green to the Tee" the putter is the club that is used the most during a round of golf and this is how one master lower scores. If the putter is used more, then more time should be spent practicing this. Then the next lesson is chipping w/ wedge which is another frequent club used through 18 holes. Next was 9-5 irons and so on up to the Driver last and most importantly least. Also importance was stressed that if you can hit your 5 Iron 200yds dead straight then it was wrong to use your Driver off the tee if you were hitting it 250-275 yds but resulting sliced/hooked out of bounds costing precious strokes. most holes on a standard course are par 4 holes 300-375 yds in length. Logic stood w/ my father that if you can hit two straight 5 irons 200 yrd you're their safe and secure tug around the green, rather than hit a Driver 289 out of bounds lying 3 w/ a shot to go. It works simple as that. I remember I was having trouble breaking the infamous 100 round. My uncle told me to grab only my 5 Iron, Wedge, Putter and nothing else and play a round. Surprise Surprise a round of 91 resulted. 3 clubs only versus the complication of deciding the other choices and the temptation to break out the Big Gun "driver".
I have been learning the "proper" way to trade the same way. What is more important Observing or the Math/Counting? This obviously I think is different and subjective for all. I am definitely an Observer and have accomplished this feat. I have observed: charts, economic figures, Maria Bartolomo, David Faber, candle sticks, prices, contracts, fundamental research, rumored tips till I was both blue in the face and penniless w/ wife and kids to come home to and feel relentless guilt and self-pity, the math was far away secondary. Observation alone = Driver. Now I am practicing, soaking up, and learning as much statistics, math as I can. Counting = Putter. The math in counting is the ability to sink a four foot putt, the observational drive can Macro/Micro get you the 300 yd tee drives but if you can't make that four foot putt then what use was the long drive. Remember in golf a stroke is a stroke no matter if it is a 300 yd drive or two inch putt it all counts the same. So now I am learning like my father and all the rest seem to have learned on this list. From the math, to the observations, to the trade. Observing and then speculating alone on its own hasn't been too good to me so I hope this works, know'n it ain't no Golden Chalice end all.
j.t.
my mom can still beat me at age 55.