Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

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A student of the market prone to poker, but new to trading, who we shall call Mr. Ace queries the following:

Q:
1) Bonds in very tight range over the past 2 days after a big up day Friday.
2) At close yesterday, SP had 3 days in a very tight range following a big up day. And, SP big down day today.

Could bonds have a similar big down day tomorrow or Thursday? Or perhaps Friday jobs will be very high prompting drop in bonds. In any case, strange for bonds to stay so high given still high chance fed will raise rates next meeting plus such a weak dollar.

Chair's response: Don't try to do fundamental analysis on bonds. Too many experts know infinitely more than you or us. That's the beauty of the market. These experts always bring things to the proper level.